The New England Patriots take on the Baltimore Ravens on MNF. Sportsbooks have the Patriots as a 19-point road favorite with a total of 47. Wind could be a factor going west to northwest at 13-15 mph.
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But do the key betting numbers justify the huge pointspread? On offense, New England gets 8.4 more first downs per game and 139.7 more yards. In the category many of the top sports bettors consider to be most important, the Patriots get a phenomenal 1.8 more yards per play. The Pats have a humungous edge of 3.32 more yards per pass attempt.
The Ravens though qualify as a defensive dog. They allow 2.5 fewer first downs per game and .3 less yards per play. The 19 point home underdogs allow 1.3 fewer rushing yards per attempt. This is no small edge.
However, in "As big of a discrepancy as I've ever seen" according to forensic handicapping founder Stevie Vincent, New England has an ungodly edge on turnover ratio of 27. New England is +16 while the Ravens are -11.
New England is 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. Baltimore is 4-7 straight up and a horrible 1-10 according to the sportsbooks. The Patriots have gone over 9-of-11.
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