Monday, December 31, 2007

Capital One Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators

Tim Tebow won the Heisman and expects to play in Florida against next season, but he still wants a bowl win. The Michigan Wolverines want to win for outgoing coach Lloyd Carr, who managed the team through a humiliating opening loss to win eight of the next 10 and earn a spot January 1 in the Capital One Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Gators listed as 11-point favorites versus the Wolverines, while the game's total is sitting at 60.
Michigan was held to 89 yards in a 14-3 loss to Ohio State last time out, falling as 4-point home underdogs. The 17 points scored were UNDER the posted total of 46.5.
Chad Henne was 11-for-39 for 68 yards, and Mike Hart added 42 yards on the ground for the Wolverines.
Florida scored 21 unanswered points in the second half of a 45-12 win over Florida State last time out, covering the 14-point home spread. The 57 points scored were UNDER the posted total of 59.5.
Tim Tebow was 20-for-29 for 265 yards and three touchdowns, and Percy Harvin had 224 combined yards and a score for the Gators.
Team records:
Michigan: 8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
Florida: 9-3 SU, 8-3 ATS
Michigan most recently:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 6-4

Florida most recently:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the conference are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
Michigan is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Michigan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 7 games
Florida is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games

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